Old Line Elephant Maryland Conservative Blog

Why Murphy Could Have Done As Well as Ehrlich

In 2010 a strange thing happened - while Republicans were overperforming nationwide with some great triumphs, Bob Ehrlich lost an attempt to retake the Governor's mansion in Maryland. Not only that - but he did worse than he did four years previously, in a much worse overall year for Republicans. I'm not going to try to analyze what Ehrlich could have done differently - I'm sure many other people have done enough of that. What I am here to say is that if we had selected Brian Murphy as the Republican nominee, and potentially better. Here's why.

Firstly, the base would not abandon Murphy. If Murphy had somehow found a way to topple Ehrlich, do you seriously think that the GOP establishment would abandon their new nominee. Sure, he was not polling as well as Ehrlich - but that would not matter at that point. He would be their nominee - he would be their champion; he would be the man they needed to win. They would continue to support him wholeheartedly, they would continue to fundraise for him, they would probably bring in Ehrlich's fundraising network to ensure that they put up a good show.

Secondly, this was the year of the outsider. Outsiders were in. O'Malley was not an outsider, he's a consummate politician and the incumbent. Ehrlich wasn't an outsider - he was a former Congressman and former Governor. Murphy was. He never held public office and came with a ton of executive experience from the private sector. He knew how to handle money, he knew how to balance a budget, he knew the finances - and he came from the outside. That outsider image is one that a lot of people were looking for nationwide. Tack that onto the fact that the establishment would be forced to support him and you have a very useful force.

Third, Murphy had a number of interesting ideas that could have resonated in the general election. Before I voted in the primary, I put together a list of things I liked about Murphy. These included a number of good, new ideas that he was bringing forward. Such as? Cutting the salaries of the Governor and his entire staff by 25% - which could have resonated with voters in the general election. If the people are losing their jobs / suffering financially, it's good to see the Governor being willing to take a permanent pay cut. He also talked about tort reform on the trail and decoupling health insurance to your job, which could increase portability of ones health insurance. With Obamacare both divisive (including in MD) and on the minds of voters - promoting free-market solutions to health care reform could have resonated.

He also wanted to phase out the corporate income tax. Per my article in 2010:

Currently, the tax rate is 8.25% on businesses. Surrounding States? DE: 8.7% VA: 6%, DC: 9.975% PA: 9.99%. Our current corporate income tax rate is around the same as DE’s rate. Removing it entirely would make us far more competitive and promote the establishment of new business into our state. But, what would the State lose in terms of revenue? 2% of State revenue. 

These were new ideas people weren't discussing and could resonate with voters looking for something different.

Fourth, Murphy actually took a tough stance on illegal immigration - one of the socially conservative issues that are actually winnable in many blue states. Per polling around primary day - 49% of Maryland voters supported the immigration reform legislation passed in Arizona in 2010. That's right - 49% of MD voters. Now, remember, in off-year elections more conservative voters will get over represented thereby leading to issues like this having a bigger impact.

Fifth, Murphy had a way with words. Seeing him speak was part of what made me decide to begin to take Murphy seriously. Seeing him speak was why my wife was willing to consider voting for him in the primary...and eventually why she did. Read his article on O'Malley's budget. They way he frames and discusses the debate is convincing, straightforward, and overtly conservative in its tone. Murphy is a skilled writer and a skilled orator, example here with him rallying people in support of Ehrlich. He is a skilled wordsmith both in written and spoken word; that would help him in a drawn out campaign.

Finally? Murphy energized a different segment of voters than Ehrlich. Ehrlich seriously motivated Republican insiders, some Reagan Democrats, and people who knew him personally. People who knew Ehrlich personally are incredibly loyal to the former Governor. Reagan Democrats are looking for center-right Republicans to support and the Republican establishment at this point...is predominantly former Ehrlich insiders. Not that people who were friends with Ehrlich or were Ehrlich insiders are bad. That's not what I'm saying - I'm saying that that Murphy fired up different types of voters. Murphy fires up pro-life voters, the anti-illegal immigration crowd, the "competent businessman" supporters, and others in the conservative activist community. Republican insiders would have fallen in-line with Murphy's candidacy, as I said previously. There's no point in hurting the Republican brand because your preferred candidate did not win. Ehrlich hated O'Malley, as was evidenced during the debates - and any close ally of Ehrlich would support whomever the Republicans put up to take down O'Malley. It's the Reagan Democrats that Murphy would have trouble with. His very open socially conservative stances on the issues might turn some of them off. That said, you never know.

I'm not going to predict exactly how Murphy would have done in the general election - but if I were a gambling man, I would say that against O'Malley, he would have reached the 40% mark and possibly higher. Could he have won? I'm not sure - but I am certain he would have done as well as Ehrlich in this environment.